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Governor of Russia’s central bank speaks at press conference By Reuters

By on July 23, 2021 0

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows the headquarters of the Central Bank of Russia in Moscow, Russia on February 22, 2018. REUTERS / Sergei Karpukhin

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina spoke at an online press conference after the central bank raised its policy rate to 6.50% on Friday.

Here are the highlights of his comments:


“The decision is based on an important review of macroeconomic forecasts … The notable policy action we have taken is necessary to bring inflation into line with the target.”

“Deposit and loan rates have not reacted as quickly to the policy rate adjustment as OFZ bonds, today’s decision aims to speed up this process.”

“The neutral range (key rate) remains at 5-6% given inflation close to 4% … It is premature to say whether this rate hike will be the last in the political tightening cycle.”

“We considered the options to increase the rate by 50, 75 and 100 basis points.”

“We are currently seeing the policy rate in the 6-7% range next year, which will produce inflation at 4.0-4.5%.”


“Our policy will not hurt economic growth rates.”


“Carry trade flows increased slightly against the background of rising rates. This does not significantly affect the ruble exchange rate, in our opinion.”

“Equipment purchases using money from the national fund can also affect the ruble exchange rate, this influence needs to be further assessed, it is better to invest the money from the fund in projects that enhance economic potential from Russia. “


“The first signs of weakening inflationary pressures appeared in the first half of July, but this is not yet sufficient to speak of a sustainable slowdown in inflation.”

“We must not tolerate high inflation expectations so that they do not anchor to this high level.”

“We expect that in annual terms the reduction in inflationary pressures will become visible in the fall.”

“There are several reasons to analyze the inflation target, we will see how the target is formulated, its level and whether it will be a point or a range. We will discuss it for a year with experts, academics, business representatives and the public. “


“According to our forecasts, the increase in OPEC + oil production will add 0.1 percentage point to GDP growth in 2021 and 0.2-0.3 percentage point in 2022.”

“A good (grain) harvest can lead to a further drop in food prices.”

“The state budget can be executed with a certain surplus.”


“There are signs of overheating in the unsecured loan market. Based on data from the last few months, we will decide on additional measures to cool this segment.”

“Geopolitical risks are also something we continue to pay attention to.”


“We are not changing our approach to banking regulation for this reason (change in the asset structure of domestic funds), but our banking regulation already includes measures to make deposits and loans in rubles more attractive and those in foreign currencies. less attractive. “


“ESG is one of the key factors that will have an ever greater influence on the Russian economy. We will regularly carry out stress tests to assess the impact of the carbon tax on our economy.

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