March US NFP and unemployment rate
Overview of the US NFP:
- Consensus forecast calls for employment growth of +490K while the unemployment rate (U3) should drop to 3.8% 3.9%, a new post-pandemic low.
- With Fed officials heavily hinting at a 50 basis point rate hike at the next meeting, the path for interest rates may already be set regardless of the state jobs report. States in March.
- Will the March US jobs report change the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path? We will discuss these and other questions in the context of Non-farm payrolls in the United States in Marchs report starting at 8:20 EDT/12:20 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
US employment data expectations, impact
A continued decline of COVID-19 omicron variant infections likely served as a tailwind to U.S. job growth in March, as evidenced by the fall in U.S. jobless claims to multi-decade lows in recent weeks.
According to a Bloomberg News survey, the US economy added +490,000 jobs in March, compared to +678,000 jobs in February, with the US unemployment rate (U3) dropping from 3.8% to 3.7%. US Labor Force Participation Rate is expected to edge up to 62.4% from 62.3%, while US Average Hourly Earnings are expected to be +5.5% y/y from 5.1% a/a.
Buthe March The US NFP report is unlikely to change the Fed’s course towards rate hikes in the coming months as Fed officials repeatedly said the US labor market was strong enough to withstand aggressive tightening. The impact on the US Dollar (via the DXY Index) may be limited, as the recent range looks likely to hold around the release of the data.
Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator (March 2022) (Chart 1)
The U.S. economy continues to make steady progress toward “full employment,” as it enjoyed before the pandemic. According to the Atlanta Fed’s job growth calculator, the US economy needs +335,000 jobs per month over the next 12 months to return to the pre-pandemic US labor market a unemployment rate of 3.5% (U3) with an unemployment rate of 63.4%. activity rate.
We will discuss these and other questions in the context of March US Nonfarm Payrolls Report from 8:20 EDT/13:20 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategistst