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The Week Ahead – Central Banks, US Non-Farms, and Geopolitics in Brief

By on February 26, 2022 0

On the macro

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 80 stats expected in the week ending 4and March. The previous week, 57 statistics had been finalized.

For dollars:

ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, ADP non-farm payrolls developments and early jobless claims will catch the eye Monday through Thursday.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls numbers for February will be the main driver, however.

Away from the economic calendar, geopolitical news will also provide guidance. Hopes that the FED would pause rate hikes weighed on the dollar on Friday.

With geopolitics front and center, US President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address will also spark interest after the US market closes on Monday. After Biden, Fed Chairman Powell is due to testify Wednesday and Thursday.

In the week ending 25and In February, the Dollar Spot Index rose 0.55% to 96.615.

For their:

Private sector PMIs for Italy and Spain and finalized PMIs for France, Germany and the Eurozone will be of interest. Expect Eurozone PMIs to have more influence.

German retail sales, unemployment and trade data will also be of great interest.

On the monetary policy front, the minutes of the ECB meeting are due out on Thursday. The impact may however be less than normal. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ECB said it was carrying out an impact assessment and would do what was necessary to fulfill its mandate.

For the week, the euro fell 0.72% to $1.1268.

For the pound:

The final private sector PMIs for February will be in focus. Markets will be on the lookout for any revisions to the services PMI.

The pound slipped 1.14% to end the week at $1.3409.

For the Loonie:

4and GDP figures for the quarter are expected at the start of the week. The Bank of Canada‘s monetary policy decision will be the main event. Markets will get an idea of ​​how central banks are likely to react to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Loonie ended the week up 0.19% at C$1.2713 against the US dollar.

From Asia Pacific

For the Australian dollar:

Retail sales, 4and quarterly GDP and trade data will be of interest this week. We expect the retail sales numbers to have a bigger impact on the Australian dollar.

Away from the numbers, Tuesday’s RBA monetary policy decision and forward guidance will be the main event of the week.

The Australian dollar rebounded 1.25% to $0.7226.

For the kiwi dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead, with statistics limited to business confidence numbers. While the number will spark interest, market risk sentiment and economic data from China will also provide guidance.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up 1.38% at $0.6743.

For the Japanese yen:

Industrial production, retail and 4and capital expenditure figures for the quarter are expected from Japan. Expect industrial production figures and retail sales figures to have more impact.

The Japanese yen fell 0.11% to end the week at ¥115.550 against the US dollar.

Outside of China

The NBS and Caixin private sector PMIs for February will be in focus. Expect numbers based on the Caixin survey to have a more significant impact on global financial markets.

In the week ending 25and In February, the yuan appreciated by 0.58% to end the week at 6.3175 against the dollar.

Geopolitics

Russia and Ukraine will remain in the spotlight over the coming week, which could once again overshadow economic data and central bank chatter.