November 24, 2022
  • November 24, 2022

WTI rebound rebounds in August

By on July 30, 2022 0

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trading Levels

  • Crude oilUpdated Technical Trade Levels – Weekly Chart
  • WTI rebounds out of support – looking to validate completion of correction in August
  • New to the oil business? Get started with this free How to Trade Oil-Beginner’s Guide

Crude oil prices ended a three-week losing streak, with WTI now up more than 12% from July lows. The focus is on this off-tech support recovery and the battle lines are being drawn ahead of the August open. It’s the updated targets and invalidation levels that count on the oil price weekly technical chart. Exam my last Strategy Webinar for a detailed analysis of this technical crude oil price setup and more.

Crude Oil Price Chart – Weekly WTI

Chart prepared by Michel Boutrostechnical strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Remarks: In my last Crude oil Weekly Technical forecast we noted that the WTI, “the correction is now probing levels of interest for possible support. From a trading standpoint, a good area to cut portions of short exposure/lower protective stops…” Oil is up over 5.7% this week to back above 100 before the close American Friday. Is this the bottom we were looking for? It’s too early to tell and while the threat of another washout remains, we’ll be looking for validation before the August open.

The focus is on this rebound from the confluent midline support with the initial week resistance looked at the 38.2% % Fibonacci retracement of the decline from June to 103.19. Key resistance is seen at the close of the June week high reversal / 61.8% retracement at 110.01-111 – a weekly break/close above this threshold would be necessary to suggest a more significant low as recorded this month/possible resumption of the uptrend. Weekly Support remains unchanged at 91.85 supported by larger bullish invalidation to 85.61-88.01– a region defined by the 2013 low, the 100% extension of the March decline and the 61.8% retracement of the November advance.

At the end of the line : Heading into the August open, the focus remains on confirming potential low exhaustion from either of these levels in the coming weeks IF the broader multi-year uptrend in the oil must remain viable. From a trading perspective, losses should be limited to the lower close (~95) IF a bigger turn is in the works with a close above 111 ultimately needed to mark the rally. That said, stay nimble in the monthly/weekly open – another investigation of uptrend support may provide more favorable opportunities. Review my latest Short Term Technical Outlook for Crude Oil to take a closer look short term WTI technical trading levels.

For a full analysis of Michael’s trading strategy, see his Fundamentals of Technical Analysis Series on Bbuild a Jrading Sstrategy

Crude Oil Traders Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Price Technical Forecast: WTI Rebound Rebounds in August

  • A summary of IG Customer Sentiment shows traders are net long Crude Oil – the ratio stands at +1.44 (59.03% of traders are long) – generally weak bearishreading
  • Long positions are3.02% more than yesterday and 3.47% less than last week
  • Short positions are11.59% less than yesterday and 0.09% more than last week
  • We generally take a contrarian view of crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net long suggests that WTI prices may continue to decline. Traders are sharper than yesterday but less clear since last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us another mixed bias on crude oil trading from a feeling point of view.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michel BoutrosTechnical Strategist at DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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